The US political website Axios quoted two people familiar with the matter as saying on the 9th that Trump has informed his advisers that he is considering participating in the 2024 US presidential election. Political analysts said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on the 10th that if the news is true, it means that although Trump has vowed to “fight to the end in court,” he has understood that he lost in this election. reality. Trump may end his trip to the White House with “announcement of his candidacy in 2024” as a unique and actual “statement of defeat.”
The rumors of “Candidate for 2024” did not just originate from the two people familiar with the matter. According to US media reports, Trump’s ally and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said in an interview with Fox News on the same day that if Trump failed in the next legal battle, and he should consider running again in 2024. “He shouldn’t let his movement die,” Graham said, “I will encourage him to consider doing so… He should create an organization or platform in the future to keep his influence active.” According to the “Congress” The Mountain News quoted Malvaney, the former director of the White House Office on the 9th, who “absolutely” will include Trump on the “list of candidates” who may participate in the 2024 election.
Li Haidong, professor of international relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that if this news is true, it means that Trump still refuses to admit defeat in the public-this may be due to his unwillingness to admit defeat. But he already knew that the next legal battle would not be able to recover. At the same time, from the 70 million votes he once again realized that he has a huge support crowd, considering the possibility of a comeback in 2024.
According to U.S. media reports, Trump submitted documents to the U.S. Federal Election Commission on the day of the presidential inauguration in 2017, with a view to qualifying for the 2020 presidential election.
“Trump is likely to end his White House trip by announcing that he will participate in the 2024 U.S. election.” Sun Tai, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Christopher Newport University in the United States, pointed out to a reporter from the Global Times, ” Even so, Trump will not withdraw from the spotlight, but will lead the news cycle again. One thing that is likely to happen is: Trump will enter the’campaign mode’ again as soon as he leaves the White House, rally everywhere, non-stop Meet local supporters and start fundraising for 2024.”
According to the Twenty-Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that came into effect in 1951, the president of the United States can serve a maximum of two terms for a term of four years, but the two terms need not be consecutive. In the history of the United States, the only twice-elected president with a non-consecutive term is Cleveland, who served as the 22nd and 24th president of the United States from 1895 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897.
Axios and the “Capitol Hill” analyzed that despite Trump’s defeat in several key swing states, he received more votes than in 2016, indicating that his influence on millions of Republican voters is “extraordinary.” “It will also increase his influence in the Republican Party. “If he decides to challenge to the White House again in 2024, he will be the most promising candidate in the Republican primary.”
It is worth mentioning that Trump may bring longer-term changes to the Republican Party and American politics. Li Haidong’s analysis believes that for a long time to come, the trend of political polarization and intensification of the struggle between the two parties in the United States will continue. Trump is likely to become an important “card” for the Republican Party to continue to beat the Democratic Party, and this also means special Lampe will likely continue to have considerable political energy. “The Republican Party is becoming more and more Trump-like. It remains to be seen whether it will reflect on it in the future, deepen the division, or have a series of complex integrations.”
Sun Taiyi believes that in the past four years, the Republican Party has essentially “divided” into several forces: one part closely surrounds Trump and believes that “grouping” is more important than observing party values. This trend is extremely strong. With the blessing of the right-wing media, it is becoming more and more unstoppable; some of the establishments in the leadership, such as the Senate majority leader McConnell, although “incompatible with Trump’s three views”, do not hinder the use of his power to promote Own agenda; the third part is aware of the seriousness of the problem and believes that if Trump continues to exist in the political arena, it will not only make the Republican party “not a party,” it may also become a huge challenge to the American system. These three forces also have different attitudes towards Trump’s post-election performance.
“Willing to accept Trump’s rebellion against American democratic norms, or denying it, will become the ultimate test before the Republican Party.” The American magazine “Politician” lamented in a comment on the 7th.